At a Glance

  • Novo Nordisk's first-quarter sales and operating profit beat analyst expectations, driven by a strong launch of oral Wegovy, prompting the company to raise its full-year guidance.
  • In February, the company had warned of a sharp decline in 2026 results due to pricing pressure and increased competition from market leader Eli Lilly. On Wednesday, it revised its forecast, now expecting adjusted sales and operating profit to fall between 4% and 12%, compared with the previous expectation of 5% to 13%.
  • Novo Nordisk said oral Wegovy generated first-quarter sales of 2.26 billion Danish kroner (about $354 million), nearly double the consensus analyst estimate of 1.16 billion kroner compiled by Jefferies analyst Michael Leuchten. Overall adjusted sales and operating profit beat Wall Street expectations by 1% and 14%, respectively.

Deeper Dive

Oral Wegovy provides a boost for Novo Nordisk in the GLP-1 market, which is currently dominated by Eli Lilly, while Novo Nordisk has been struggling. Over the past year, Novo Nordisk underwent a major leadership overhaul, appointed a new CEO, and plans to cut 9,000 jobs.

The Danish drugmaker is trying to counter Eli Lilly by launching a higher-dose injectable version of Wegovy and pricing it below the highest dose of Lilly's competing drug Zepbound. But analysts believe the company's best chance to regain market share lies in oral Wegovy.

Novo Nordisk has gotten a head start in the oral GLP-1 market, launching about three months before Eli Lilly's competing oral drug, Foundayo. Unlike Wegovy—an oral version of an injectable that has been available for years—Lilly's Foundayo is a new drug. Lilly CEO David Ricks recently told CNBC that this means the product may need more time to build a prescription base.

For now, Novo Nordisk has a clear advantage. Novo Nordisk says oral Wegovy has generated more than 2 million prescriptions since its launch on January 5. The product saw over 18,000 prescriptions in its first week, while Lilly's Foundayo, launched on April 9, had 5,612 prescriptions in its third week (according to Reuters).

This gap has raised investor concerns about the competitiveness of Lilly's product. Although the two drugs have not undergone head-to-head trials, patients on oral Wegovy in Novo Nordisk's clinical trials showed higher average weight loss percentages than Lilly's test results for Foundayo. Lilly counters that its product is more convenient, as it does not need to be taken on an empty stomach.

The success of oral Wegovy is crucial for Novo Nordisk, as the company has faced setbacks in developing next-generation drugs in the metabolic space. A study published in February showed that the experimental combination weight-loss injection CagriSema failed to match Zepbound. Meanwhile, Lilly is developing a triple-action drug that has shown success in late-stage tests for diabetes and osteoarthritis. Novo Nordisk's corresponding triple agonist drug is progressing more slowly.